The 21st century, before it began, was marked by two catastrophes of the stock market, a global financial crisis, followed by a large-scale recession, which will take a long time to come out. What is happening in the capital markets now, is the consequence of those actions of politicians, economists and financial gurus, listening to which many lost their capital.
What will be discussed in this article serves as a good example of the fact that when making decisions it is worth paying attention to your own understanding of market processes and being guided by common sense.
1st forecast – Oil will cost 200 dollars per barrel
The first to give the world such a charge of optimism was the investment bank, Goldman Sachs.
Encouraged by the sharp increase in oil in 2005 to $ 105, which, as seen from the height of the past, was certainly stimulated by the impressive growth of China’s economy, and a reduction in supply in the hydrocarbon market.
In 2008, after oil reached historical highs of $ 147 per barrel, leading analyst Goldman Sachs Murthy categorically stated that the oil market entered the growth phase of the new unprecedented super cycle and that the first goal of $ 200 would be achieved in the very near future. At us then in Russia spoke, that “Gazprom” is “our everything” and 350 rubles for the action, it almost for nothing. However, a few weeks after these words, “Bear Stearns” and “Lehmann Brothers” bade farewell to the world market and oil saw its legitimate $ 30. Well, four years later the world saw not a super cycle of oil growth, but full and unconditional surrender. The most interesting thing in this story is that the unhappy guru analyst was fired from the bank in 2014.
2nd Forecast – Nothing is more precious than gold
This forecast was first announced (and then picked up by the entire investment community) in 2009 (just after the start of the QE1 Fed program) by a certain Mark Faber in a company with a well-known market expert Peter Shift.
Mark Faber is a formerly unchallenged investment authority, founder of the Swiss investment fund, who said that the program of printing money started by the US Central Bank is nothing but the start of hyperinflation. He probably was confused by the analogy with what was in the early 1980s, when inflation in the United States had double-digit values, and which was inspired by Alan Greenspan. And it was he who predicted the dollar fast collapse and the fate of the Zimbabwean dollar.
Naturally, he did not ignore how and where to save money . Of course, first of all, gold was chosen for this, which according to him will soon cost only some $ 5,000 per ounce. What we see now is that nobody is burying the dollar, it is also strong and flexible – because printing money and adding zeros to the Fed’s computer is two big differences, as they say. Gold is where it is supposed to be (which does not exclude its growth in reasonable, of course, limits). About the very predictor is heard very little, apparently those who bought gold “on hayah” can not forgive him this can not.
3rd Forecast – The collapse of the domestic debt market of America
This story is little known outside the developed countries, since it concerned mainly municipal and territorial bonds of America. But the consequences of possible panic could have no less impact on world markets than the crisis of “sub prime”.
The owner of this forecast in 2010 was Meredith Whitney, the leading analyst of the world’s largest open-source investment fund “OpenGame”. According to her, the market of municipal debts of America is waiting for a total collapse with losses of hundreds of billions of dollars. I must say that in part it was right, because at that time, as soon as we left the crisis, many municipalities did not have enough money to pay off their debts on bonds. The panic that started was quickly extinguished by the government, immediately developed a subsidy program and introduced tax holidays on these securities.
4th Forecast – There is no mortgage crisis-everything is under control
These words belong not to anyone, but to Mr. Bernanke, one of the chief architects of the American monetary policy.
In March 2007, when the first signs of the debt crisis began to appear, he said: “Rumors about the impending debt collapse are deliberately spread by financial institutions and can cause significant harm, we closely follow the market of” sub prime “and keep the situation under control.” Now it is clear that Bernanke and Paulson, then head of the Federal Reserve, allowed something that could be avoided. But sacred sacrifice in the form of Lehman Brothers was in vain and belated, and moreover it became that “black swan”, the consequences of which are felt until now. In consequence, Bernanke, as is known, being already the head of the Federal Reserve himself corrected what he himself was involved in, and unfortunately with the same methods as before.
5th Forecast – There is no real estate bubble
The author of this first in the 21st century predictions was Alan Greenspan.
It is he who can give the palm to the forecasts and recommendations, which laid a very bad foundation for the entire world financial system, creating a precedent for the two crises and the series of “currency wars” that are taking place now.
His concept of low interest rates, the minimization of the regulation of “big brothers” (the largest financial corporations and banks) did its black work, and the mortgage bond market at that time was in favor as no other. His statement, made in June 2005, that there is no price bubble in the real estate market, and for all who want to get their house on credit, green light is open. Even if we accept that, according to its status, he can and should have said something like that, but the most surprising is that his speech was quickly picked up by conservative economists with world names. They practically made us believe ordinary people that the prices of borrowed housing will always grow, and we will print as much money for this as we need, will be remembered by many for a long time.
As an afterword . Perhaps someone will seem that these historical facts have nothing to do with what is happening now – the situation is different, lessons from the past have been extracted and this will not happen again. But, as is known, everything has a cyclic character.