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20 years is too long for market better revive market condition every 2/3
I would be looking for a mutual fund that retains about 20% of it’s portfolio relatively liquid and risk free, essentially cash or cash equivalents.
This is because almost every decade has seen a market downturn, basically a crash where you can lose up to 60% of your investment. In engineering, a fudge factor probability for something that you expect to be likely but not certain and you can’t quantify more precisely would be 63% which is 1-1/e. If you say that there’s a 63% chance of a crash every ten years then you can say that there will be a 90.5% chance that a given year will not have a crash. If you assume that you would yield 6% in a year where there isn’t a crash and have a total loss (pessimistic) if there was one, then the optimal investment for maximized log utility of wealth would be 82% of your portfolio. Interestingly enough if the expected yield when there isn’t a crash was assumed to be 15%, the optimal proportion to risk is still 82% Hence a portfolio balance of 20% risk free and 80% investment should provide you with the maximum capital growth if you expect there to be a 63% chance of a crash every 10 years regardless of how bad that crash may be.
20 years is very long term. you could go with hdfc top 200. but monitor the fund every 2 years.
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